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Merced County, CA

RANK #722 / 996  ·  POP 282,290  ·  CA

PROJECTED GROWTH: -0.1%

Merced County ranks in the bottom tier of U.S. counties on economic momentum.

[01] Why Merced County?

Merced County, located in California's San Joaquin Valley, is often called the "Gateway to Yosemite" due to its proximity to the national park, roughly two hours away. The county seat, the city of Merced, is about 56 miles from Fresno. The community offers access to outdoor recreation at places like Lake Yosemite for fishing and boating, and the Merced River Recreation Management Area, known for whitewater boating, camping, and hiking. The county also features several state recreation areas, including McConnell State Recreation Area, which provides opportunities for fishing and swimming along the Merced River.

Life in Merced County is shaped by its agricultural roots and a growing educational presence, notably the University of California, Merced, which opened in 2005. The county's economy is largely driven by agriculture, food processing, and related industries. Public sector employment, healthcare, and transportation also contribute significantly to the job market. Commute options include local bus services and vanpooling programs that connect communities within the county and to neighboring areas. The county's 20 school districts serve over 58,000 students.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.4x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+7.9%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-1.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 9.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Signal Profile

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Merced County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
282,290
+1.12% YoY
Median Household Income
$64,772
Median Home Value
$342,300
-1.9% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,200
Average Annual Pay
$54,952
+3.5% YoY
Employment
84,952
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1892
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.83%
of pop. from another state

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$401,734
Days on Market
45
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.1
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.6%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
27.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
29.9%
Building Permits (2024)
520
Single-Family Permits
517

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Capital Investment

$798M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Wright Solar Park
Undisclosed
$200M Completed
Zeta Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project
Longroad Energy
$150M Planned
Spikes Peak Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project
Undisclosed
$150M Proposed
Gonzaga Ridge Wind Farm (Repowering & Battery Storage)
Scout Clean Energy
$148M Under Construction
Campus Parkway Project (Segments II & III)
Merced County
$100M Completed
Devonwood Affordable Housing Project
The Richman Group / Huff Construction
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[06] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +7.9% 96 percentile
Population Growth +1.1% 75 percentile
Income Growth +10.0% 80 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 65 percentile
Home Price Change -1.9% 15 percentile
Rent Growth +1.3% 25 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 33 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Merced County, CA a good place to move to?

Merced County has a Boom Town Index score of 28/100, ranking #722 among 996 U.S. counties. With job growth at +1.3% and a median household income of $64,772, it faces some economic headwinds compared to faster-growing counties.

Is Merced County affordable?

The median home value in Merced County is $342,300 with median rent at $1,200/month. The income-to-home-value ratio is 0.1892, which is less affordable than the national average.

Is Merced County growing or shrinking?

Population growth: +1.1% year-over-year. Job growth: +1.3%. Home values changed -1.9% in the past 12 months.

Are people moving to Merced County?

Yes — 3.83% of Merced County's population moved from another state, which is above the national average and indicates strong in-migration.

[08] Similar Metros

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